Good Monday evening, everyone. I wanted to push out a quick update in regards to the flooding rainfall and severe weather potential for tomorrow.
A Flood Watch goes into effect at midnight Tuesday morning for much of the Commonwealth. Some folks could see 1” to 3” inches of rain tomorrow. If you live in a flood prone area, make sure and keep an eye out for the possibility of flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center continues that level 1 “Marginal Risk” for severe weather tomorrow. Note, a level 2 “Slight Risk” is just off to our west that includes the Bowling Green area.
Here’s the newest run of the future radar. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms could form tonight and into the early morning hours on Tuesday. I do not expect these storm to be strong to severe. It looks like a squall line will develop and move through sometime late tomorrow afternoon and through the evening hours. This will be our best chance for any severe weather.
In my morning post, I mentioned CAPE or “fuel” was fairly low. This latest run of the model has shown a slight increase in the available energy. Coupled with wind energy in the upper atmosphere, the chance for strong to severe storms is there. Remember, models are not always right, and they can over or under estimate certain weather parameters. Best chance of severe weather continues to be to our west though.
The STP or Significant Tornado Parameter is showing some potential for a few tornadoes tomorrow. The best risk will be in Western Kentucky.
This will not be a major severe weather outbreak. The main threat will be damaging straight line winds, but I cannot rule out an isolated tornado or two. If the sun comes out tomorrow, that could help enhance the severe weather risk. I will monitor this closely and post more updates as more information comes available.